Market & Portfolio Update - October 2023

Global share markets declined 2.6% in local currency terms in October, as they were impacted by rising long-term bond yields. However, the NZ dollar also weakened by a similar amount, providing a significant offset for NZ-based investors.

The latest US economic manufacturing and employment data came in strong last month, demonstrating the ongoing resilience of the US economy. This economic resilience has been a key driver of the recent rise in bond yields, as investors anticipate interest rates will stay higher for longer.

Despite a lower-than-expected inflation figure, New Zealand’s bond yields followed global markets higher last month. New Zealand’s latest quarterly inflation report showed our annual inflation rate declining to 5.6%, which was lower than the Reserve Bank’s expectation of 6%. It is encouraging to see inflation trending in the right direction, but we still have a way to go until we reach the Reserve Bank’s desired target of 2%.