Market & Portfolio Update - November 2023
Global share markets had a strong month, up 8% in local currency terms in November. A combination of factors such as declining long-term bond rates, a lower-than-expected US inflation report, and resilient company earnings, particularly in the Information Technology sector, contributed to this performance.
Global bond markets gained 4% - their best monthly performance since 2008. This was driven by the US Treasury signalling less government borrowing in the short-term than expected by markets and downside surprises to economic data, which led investors to lower their interest rate expectations. Two of the most important data sets closely tracked by investors were the US employment and US inflation reports. The employment data showed a higher unemployment rate and fewer jobs added than expected, and this was followed by a lower-than-expected inflation report.
New Zealand followed international markets higher, with the NZX50 up over 5% in November. The RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 5.5%. However, they suggested that interest rates may still go higher or stay higher for longer than expected. They pointed toward several upside risks to inflation, including elevated net migration.
A look back at when the world feared the worst
On August 2, 1990, the world woke up to a grim headline: “Iraq Invades Kuwait; Oil Prices Soar, Markets Plunge.”
Saddam Hussein's forces had crossed into Kuwait, triggering fears of a prolonged conflict in the oil-rich Middle East.
The immediate market reaction was swift and severe.
Lifetime Book Club: The Let Them Theory
In a world where we spend so much energy trying to control outcomes, manage other people’s opinions, and keep everything on track, this book offers a different approach. One that suggests peace comes not from controlling more, but from letting go.