Market & Portfolio Update - November 2018

Market & Portfolio Update - November 2018

Global share markets rose slightly in November (up 1%), although returns for NZ investors were offset by a 5% rise in the New Zealand Dollar. Our currency has generally fluctuated in a moderate range between US 65c and 75c over the past two years, and its recent rise to just under US 70c brings it back closer in line with our assessment of long-run fair value.

Oil prices dramatically reversed their recent rise (falling from over US$80 to $60 per barrel), as production rates have increased. This is likely to take the edge off inflation pressure and give central banks a little more flexibility in how they approach interest rates, but it should not detract too much from the path of gradually higher interest rates in the United States (and eventually here in New Zealand).

Amidst the choppier share market performance recently, companies with more stable earnings have come to the fore, which is a typical part of market cycles. Global healthcare businesses are a good example of this, which have performed almost 10% ahead of shares in general since September. It is unfortunate that Christmas will see us all another year older, but this inevitable reality does provide some stability to demand for healthcare services, underpinning company earnings.

Disclaimer: This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking into consideration any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs.  Any opinions contained in it are held as at the report date and are subject to change without notice.  This document is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.